The road map for Iran obtaining Nuclear Weapons

White House releases factsheet on the ‘parameters for a joint comprehensive plan of action’ after agreement on Iran’s nuclear program reached in Lausanne

Source Material

Iran has been severely hit by sanctions

Epic BBC Fail




Before I sat down to write this article the main thought I had was how the international community is committed to appeasing Iran's nuclear and territorial ambitions. In my last article I touched upon Iran's territoral ambitions .

In this article I am going to cover the international communities efforts to prevent Iran from gaining Nuclear Weapons , in more contemporary times. I will leave it to the history books to detail the Clinton Administration's middle east foreign policy.

Originally the goal of the international community was to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons. Around 2006 the political fall out from the Iraq War lead the Bush admin to opt against using military force to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons program. The Iraq War used up the political capital that could have been used to gather support for the military option.

The US and the international community faced a fork in the road. One road would use the so called International Rules Based Order to pressure Iran into backing down from its radio active ambitions. On this route sanctions would be the primary instrument used to apply pressure to the Iranian regime into changing course.

The other road would have seen the US military make a military incursion into Iran. IMO how Iranian backed Shiite insurgents were operating in Iraq provided considerable justification for the US , UK and Australia to curtail Iran's attempt to take over Iraq. The air campaign against Iran could have eliminated that countries Nuclear Program.

A historical parallel would be President Richard Nixon authorising the Cambodian Incursion. Nixon understood that North Vietnamese forces had enjoyed the use of sanctuaries in Cambodia. US forces successfully interjected large amounts of supplies and other enemy infrastructure.

Whether or not the goal of using military force against Iran should have involved regime change or not is purely speculative at this point in time. Incidentally the Iranian backed terrorists/insurgents are now fighting alongside the Iraqi army in an attempted to retake Tikrit from Isis.

Before I move away from the path that wasn't taken it is worth expanding on where a lot of the political capital was spend. Political figures like John Kerry and Hillary Clinton practically ran for the hills in an effort to distance themselves from their prior support for regime change in Iraq.

Now it is worth noting that the sanction highway is still be driven against North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program. At the time of writing North Korea's nuclear weapons program is continuing to progress unhindered by sanctions or Useless Nations Security Council resolutions.

World leaders continue to have a religious like faith in sanctions. In light of how sanctions have failed to stop North Korea from undertaking nuclear tests , faith is trumping the facts. If the reader views the above article from the BBC they will see the fallacy of religious faith. Below the heading : Iran has been severely hit by sanctions there appears to be a photo of an Iranian auto worker.

Sanctions behave like import tariffs use too in the days before New Zealand embraced free trade and globalisation. If you are a part of the Iranian manufacturing sector your business will thrive thanks to the Tariffs err I mean sanctions. Very little or no imported goods would leave you with a monopoly in your chosen market.

Had world leaders studied how Apartheid South Africa fared under sanctions , they would found their religious beliefs being challenged in a most Darwinism like fashion. Take the instance of how South Africa developed an arms industry. Bans on arms sales to South Africa would have simply benefited the local arms manufacturing industry.

The election of Barack Obama as President of the United States saw the acceptance of a nuclear armed Iran. The much publicised diplomatic breakthrough (officially known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action for Iran Nuclear Program ) with Iran puts window dressing on the acceptance of that country's application to join the “Nuclear Club.”

The main stream media has accepted the idea that moderate (aka some what pro western) elements are governing Iran. This idea is even more crackers than the religious faith that I covered above. The real power lies with the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The balance of constitutional authority lies with Khamenei and not the legislator (known as the Islamic Consultative Assembly) or the office of the presidency.

As the reader will be well aware Khamenei is an Islamic hard-liner. Khamenei's public statements concerning the Parameters the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action ; Israel ; and the USA are the Iranian regime's ideologue manifest. The reader may want to think of Adolf Hitler's book Mein Kampf . Just swap Hitler's Nazi ideologue for Islamic extremism.

Now I will give the reader my future forecast. By 2020 -25 Iran will have nuclear weapons. In this time frame Iran will launch nuclear weapons against Israel. Simultaneously Iran will invade secular Turkey. Strategically the focus of the UK and the USA will be on the Third Battle of the Atlantic and not the Middle East theatre of war. I now leave the reader with what I hope has been some food for thought.