The annexing of Crimea liberated the Sevastopol naval base from Ukrainian restrictions and by 2016 the Black Sea fleet will have received 6 new Grigorovich-class frigates, 6 improved Kilo-class submarines and several missile corvettes. Meanwhile the Northern fleet is starting to receive the new Borei class SSBNs and the Yassen SSGNs. Both classes have had a long and difficult construction history and the Borei’s have had serious problems with their Bulava missiles but the first vessel was declared fully operational in 2014.
The event put the media spotlight on the dangerous lack of UK Maritime Patrol Aircraft, as it was forced to call on NATO partners for help. 2 US Navy P3 Orions, a French Atlantique and a Canadian Aurora arrived at RAF Lossiemouth to support the a hunt.
Full article
My aim is to present the reader with part two of my response to the excellent op -ed from the Save The Royal Navy Campaign. Previously I have had the privilege of chatting with Peter Sandeman about many of the issues that the Royal Navy is facing today.
In part one I presented the reader with my argument behind why I believe the Russia's economic strategy has been designed to prepare the country for a war against NATO. The reader will also find the timeline for the coming war in part one of this piece. Part two is my hypothesis on how the Third Battle of the Atlantic will play out from the stand point of the UK.
At the risk of offending the American and Canadian reader I will be omitting both countries naval and air forces. The contributions of the United States and Canadian navies and air forces to the battle do unfortunately fall beyond the scope of this article. Space doesn't permit me to delve into the issues around the UK shipyards,Royal Navy Submarine force and how the convoy system would be implemented at the outbreak of war.
This article will offer a broad look at what factors will be at work during the coming Third Battle of the Atlantic. What the reader will not find is a discussion on the capabilities of each class of Russian and Royal Navy warship and submarines and how they match up. My aim is to reach the general reader and the reader who has an interest in military affairs by presenting fresh analysis and not covering old ground , or should that be previously charted waters.
Russian air and naval forces will conduct Area Access and Area Denial operations against the coastlines of the UK ,East coast of the USA and out in the Atlantic. Essentially the goal of the Russians will be to blockade the UK until food supplies run out . By starving out the UK the Russian's will be able to take the UK out of the war and there conquest of western Europe will go unchallenged.
Providing that Royal Navy and Air Force planners have created contingency plans for the Third Battle of the Atlantic they will be working on the assumption that the enemies air and naval forces will be operating from their home bases. I believe the notion of Russian forces being confined to operating from Russia will be proven incorrect.
After the Russians have occupied Poland and Germany they will invade France and the low countries. The dividends from the occupation of France will be the ports along the Bay of Biscay. By shifting there submarine fleet to Ports like Brest the Russian Navy will have open access to the Atlantic.
The obvious historical parallels would be how after the fall of France in 1940 German U-boats opened the cork on the first Happy Time after they began operating from ports along the Bay of Biscay. The biggest handicap the Germans faced in the first Happy Time and before the USA entered World War 2 was they lacked the number of U-boats in service, pre-war planning had calculated they would need to win the war. One cannot rely on the Russians making the same mistake.
Russian submarines, land based aircraft and carrier based aircraft will be tasked with attacking convoys of merchant ships. The convoy system is going to be operating under some server if not fatal handicaps that I will deal with below.
The role of sea mines in Russian naval doctrine has perhaps been understated because western observers are not on the eight ball. Russia's Navy and Air Force will use sea mines to bottle up merchant ships in harbors and close down sea lanes/convoy routes.
The budgetary cutbacks that successive governments have made to the Royal Navy and Air Force will see them start the battle short handed. As for the Royal Navy they will start the battle with too few frigates. Frigates are and will be the workhorse of Anti Submarine Warfare. The main duty of the workhorses will be the role escorting convoys. The importance of this role cannot be understated.
The absence of Royal Air Force maritime patrol aircraft will allow Russian Submarine's the freedom to converge on Convoy's unhindered. Consider it in terms of eye sight. The maxim range the workhorses to detect and destroy enemy subs will be the range of the accompanying helicopters making them akin to being legally blind. By the same token the Russians will have 20/20 vision across the whole ocean.
The convoys will be be easily located by enemy forces mainly because of the following reasons. In size the Atlantic Ocean is a duck pond which will confine the convoys to predictable East – West routes. Warfare isn't the game cricket: Russian maritime patrol aircraft/bombers will roam the Atlantic pinpointing the location of the convoys.
Having been located the convoy's will come under a coordinated attack from enemy submarines ,aircraft and at times surface vessels. The convoy's defenses will be overwhelmed leaving the merchant ships to be sunk in less time someone will spend watching there favorite prime time TV show.
The lessons from the last Battle of the Atlantic concerning the loss of shipping in the gap that existed in Allied air coverage (known as the Air Gap) ; starting the war with insufficient Anti Submarine Warfare capabilities and to few workhorses are long forgotten.
At the outset of the war the enemy will enjoy a Happy Time as the price for the forgotten lessons. You can be assured that the price in blood and ships lost will shock the uninformed observer or residents of the UK who spent the years leading up to the battle in a slumber.
The absence of Royal Air Force maritime patrol aircraft will allow Russian Submarine's the freedom to converge on Convoy's unhindered. Consider it in terms of eye sight. The maxim range the workhorses to detect and destroy enemy subs will be the range of the accompanying helicopters making them akin to being legally blind. By the same token the Russians will have 20/20 vision across the whole ocean.
The convoys will be be easily located by enemy forces mainly because of the following reasons. In size the Atlantic Ocean is a duck pond which will confine the convoys to predictable East – West routes. Warfare isn't the game cricket: Russian maritime patrol aircraft/bombers will roam the Atlantic pinpointing the location of the convoys.
Having been located the convoy's will come under a coordinated attack from enemy submarines ,aircraft and at times surface vessels. The convoy's defenses will be overwhelmed leaving the merchant ships to be sunk in less time someone will spend watching there favorite prime time TV show.
The lessons from the last Battle of the Atlantic concerning the loss of shipping in the gap that existed in Allied air coverage (known as the Air Gap) ; starting the war with insufficient Anti Submarine Warfare capabilities and to few workhorses are long forgotten.
At the outset of the war the enemy will enjoy a Happy Time as the price for the forgotten lessons. You can be assured that the price in blood and ships lost will shock the uninformed observer or residents of the UK who spent the years leading up to the battle in a slumber.
No comments:
Post a Comment