Wednesday 26 November 2014

Australian Prime Minster Tony Abbott shirt fronts himself at the G20

As it is, only 49 per cent of Australians recently surveyed said they were confident in Abbott doing a good job in representing Australia to the international community. Being seen as a coward and a weakling diminishes the PM's ability to exploit the national security issue, particularly when Labor's strategy of sticking closely to the Government on the issue has seen the Opposition successfully minimise any point of differentiation and therefore electoral advantage to be gained.


Only now are the political negatives from Tony Abbott's threat to Vladimir Putin blindingly obvious, and "shirking the shirtfront" as one television newsreader put it, is only part of the problem.
Article

Credit must go to a good friend of mine for the title of this article as it encapsulates how the Australian Prime Minster Tony Abbot fared so poorly at the recent 2014 G20 Summit in Brisbane.
Abbott's opening address to the G20 Leaders Retreat was rambling in nature and failed to condemn Vladimir Putin for the downing of flight MH17 or mention global economic issues which are at the heart of the G-20.

Countless broken election promises and a failure to provide a clear path to returning the federal budget back into surplus has in my view placed the Liberal government re-election chances resting on Abbott being seen as the “Man of Steel” John Howard's “Man of Steel” image that steamed from committing Australian troops to the war in Iraq and his close friendship with George Bush. Tony Abbott's “Man of Steel” image has steamed events in the Ukraine and the Middle East.

In the middle east the rise of the fanatical and brutal Isis in Iraq and Syria has galvanised public opinion against the Al Qaeda franchise. The downing of flight MH17 by Russian backed separatists in the Ukraine killed a number of Australians. Abbott initially meet the expectations of a grieving and out raged nation.

A lot of domestic media and local political attention was generated when Abbot first made the comment that he was going to shirt front Putin at the G20 summit. Members of the media failed to understand or ignored how the comment was aimed squarely building his “Man of Steel” image with voters. Heck the comment would have been worth say two to three percentage points in the polls had Abbott made a good showing at the G20.

For the reasons I have described Abbot's government has a firm mandate to take a strong stand against Putin's regime. By failing to use his opening speech to condemn Russia's role in the conflict in the Ukraine and in downing flight MH-17 to both the global community and the Australian electorate Abbott shirt fronted himself.


So why did Abbott shirt front himself at the G20 and in the process losing political ground international events beyond his control gave him and the rightful moral stand he had taken? Did his advisers have a quiet word in his ear telling him not to make a speech that might be seen as the not the done thing?

Abbott's handicap is that as a career politician he has no military service , little or no private sector experience or other talents to call upon when making political and policy decisions. Abbott gives every indicator as being out of his depth in line with how I would expect most career politician's to fare as Prime Minster. Another leader with more “real world” experience behind them might have ignored any advice to the contrary and asserted the political and moral mandates the turn of international events granted them.


Friday 21 November 2014

Russian Warships and the G20

What to do if you are the leader of a former superpower about to travel to a small-ish country whose leader has promised to shirtfront you? The answer seems to be to flex a little muscle.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin is in Beijing today for the APEC meeting ahead of this week's G20 Summit in Brisbane. Also in the neighbourhood this week, an unusual sight: several elements of the Russian Navy.
Full Article


Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) executive director Peter Jennings says Russia’s actions, while not unprecedented in terms of military behaviour, are unusual because “we haven’t seen activity like this around Australia before”.
Jennings says there are two main reasons why Russian vessels would be approaching Australia.
  1. As a show of force – which is very much the Russian approach.
  2. Intelligence gathering operations – They’ll do their best to sit off the coast in international waters and pick up any signals or data coming out of the G20.
Full Article
Article

A government source said the Australian warship HMAS Parramatta is conducting “exercises” with the Russian cruiser Varyag, as the powerful Russian warship steams towards Brisbane.

A second frigate, HMAS Stuart, remains in a holding pattern off Moreton Bay where she will be joined by the replenishment ship HMAS Sirius for refuelling.

the government also asked the Navy about the possibility of a Collins Class submarine joining the mission but was told that the nearest boat was in Perth and would not be able to reach the area until well after the G20 summit was over.

Full Article




In this entry I will look at the mission of Russian naval vessels who visited international waters to the North of Australia coinciding with the 2014 G20 summit in Brisbane. My focus on replenishment at sea role in the field of naval logistics offers the reader an angle they won't have found in the main stream media reporting of the topic.


Concerning Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) executive director Peter Jenning's analysis I believe his point about the Russians making a show of force is correct and as such doesn't require further examination in this entry.


The Russian Navy deployed four confirmed ships the the guided missile cruiser Varyag, an ocean going tug , destroyer Marshal Shaposhnikov and a replensment tanker probaly a Boris Chilikin class ship. Note to the reader it is probale that the Russian submarine was also present but this hasn't been confirmed. I wasn't able to find the details for the tanker so I have made an educated guess based on my research.


Peter Jennings second contention is more open to debate. I would suggest that the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation would have had both human, electronic and other assets in place at the G-20 to monitor world leaders conservations away from official meetings.
If the Russian's goal was intelligence gathering around the G-20 why didn't they deploy a Vishnya Class intelligence ship?


The intelligence gathering aims of the deployed warships would have been limited by how the destroyer Marshal Shaposhnikov and guided missile cruiser Varyag are combat warships as opposed to specialist intelligence gathering ships.


What can be said to gone unnoticed by the main stream media and the reports from analyst's is the importance of Replenishment at Sea and how the reach and amount of time the Russian Pacific Fleet can spend at sea is greatly extended. The Royal Australian Navy response to the presence of the Russian vessels was partial enabled by their capability to support and replenish HMAS Stuart at sea.


Seen in a naval light I would say that replenishment ships like HMAS Sirius are not seen as being “sexy” like the Anzac Class frigates and other front line warships, which sees their importance go largely unnoticed in spite of the important role they have in the world's navies.


For the reader who is not familiar with replenishment ships they can be considered a floating petrol stations and general stores. Put another way consider the handicaps you would face if you could only fill your car's petrol tank from home , the distance you could travel would be half the maxim distance that your fuel supply allowed you to go.


The mission of the Russian naval vessels this article covers undoubtedly was a show of force because of the nature of the vessels that were confirmed to have been present would have had fairly limited intelligence gathering capabilities compared to a dedicated intelligence gathering platform like the Vishnya Class intelligence ships .

The Russian's are actively undertaking military modernisation , to what degree the Russian Navy upgrades its at replenishment at sea capabilities is well worth being under The Lens of History.




























Monday 17 November 2014

The Lens of History: Episode Six Peter Sandeman Save the Royal Navy Camp...



Peter Sandeman from The Save the Royal Navy Campaign  joins Luke Herbert on the couch for wide ranging discussion on the role of the Royal Navy and its importance to the United Kingdom. While the cake is baking in the oven the effects of the reductions in the Royal Navy's budget since the end of the Cold War are covered around the coffee table.


Tune in to find out how the issues facing the Royal Navy are not dissimilar to the ones facing militaries around the world as varied as the United States Air Force and the Peoples Liberation Navy in China.

Friday 14 November 2014

A look at the Shenyang J-31


China has unveiled a sophisticated new stealth fighter jet at an air show, in a show of muscle during a visit by US president Barack Obama for an Asia-Pacific summit.
Full article

It must be able to carry out multiple types of mission including close air support, air interdiction, aerial bombardment and suppression of enemy air defenses. For this reason, the article stated, the heavier J-20 is designed to engage enemy fighters at high altitude while the J-31 is more likely to be used in operations against ground targets at medium or low altitude.
Full article 

Article that mentions J-31 engines


Opinion Piece by Luke Herbert

The unveiling of the Shenyang J-31 multi role Stealth combat aircraft by the People's Liberation Army Air Force coincided with the 2014 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC) summit held in Beijing.


I have chosen to leave the topic of how the J-31 is powered by Russian designed jet engines for a separate blog entry that will look at Chinese aviation industry's efforts in the field of jet engine development in depth.

What is overlooked by the main stream media reports of the formal unveiling of the J-31 is that while the aircraft was was being developed simultaneously the Chinese will have either constructing new factories and or retooling existing ones to mass produce the design for export purposes and service in the People's Liberation Air Force.


The J-31 reflects the Chinese and Russian design philosophy of being comparable to existing more technology advanced designs while being less cutting edge. By its less advanced nature the J-31 will be inexpensive and easy to mass produce when the aircraft is ready to enter front line service. This approach allows the People's Liberation Air Force to field the J-31 as an aircraft that will be just good enough to get the job or roles assigned to it done so to speak and is comparable to the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II.


Much of the commentary in the main stream media and the blogosphere has and will focus on how the J-31 matches up to the F-35 which is considered to be a direct equivalent in the design stakes. In contrast the trade off for the F35 being on the cutting edge of aviation technology is reflected in the aircraft's extremely expensive per unit costs and slow production times on the factory floor. The F-35 is in service with the United States Air Force and will enter service with the Royal Air Force ,Royal Australian Air Force,Royal Canadian Air Force,The Italian Air Force,Royal Netherlands Air Force,Royal Norwegian Air Force and The Turkish Air Force.


I believe that a useful historical parallel for the reader is how the Luftwaffe squadrons equipped with the ME 262 the world's first operational jet fighter were unable to overcome the allies ten to one superiority in number of aircraft despite all the technology and aerial performance advantages the Me-262 enjoyed in the air. Like wise in a future war the F-35 and F-22 squadrons of the future will be flown into the meat grinder of attrition by six to one advantage the enemy will enjoy in numbers of combat aircraft.

In summary I believe that the J-31 will successfully fill the role of a multi role combat aircraft in the People's Liberation Air Force. The notion that the J-31 only has to be “just good enough” is at the heart of Chinese and Russian philosophies towards the design of aircraft and other war material.

Lastly lets compare how the J-31 and the F-35 design philosophies will materialise in a future war. The nature of the J-31 mass production friendly design will allow the People's Liberation Air Force to replace losses from combat and accidents in a straight forward manner. The United States Air Force and its counterparts where the F-35 is in front line service will face a short fall of aircraft due production rates not keeping up with losses.


























Tuesday 11 November 2014

Iraqi F-16s to remain in the USA pending the military situation

The initial batch of Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon combat aircraft for the Iraqi Air Force (IqAF) will remain in the United States until the security situation in Iraq improves, the US Department of Defense (DoD) disclosed on 10 November. Iraq has ordered 36 F-16C/D Block 52 aircraft in all, the first of which were due to be delivered to Balad Airbase earlier this year. However, the deteriorating security situation on the ground meant that the DoD had to evacuate its contractors at the base, and postpone handing over the jets.
Full article




Right a United States Air Force F-16.
Public Domain image.





Looking at the situation in Iraq the defenders are holding out while Isis resupplies and regroups. Once Isis resumes its offensive they will gain control of the remaining areas under Iraqi government control chiefly Baghdad.

 The Department of Defense decision was dictated by the circumstances that have unfolded that is the rise of Isis in Iraq. Also worth noting is how Isis has already captured a variety of US manufactured equipment in Iraq adding F-16s to the mix would have only given Isis and other countries like Russia and China a chance to go over the aircraft tooth and comb an intel gathering bonanza.

 I believe that the fact no indicators exist that the Iraqi F-16's will in the future be deployed alongside other coalition air forces like the RAAF who are conducting air strikes against Isis is a sign that US military and political leaders have written off Iraq behind closed doors. If Iraq hasn't already been written off than why isn't gradually increasing the Iraqi air force roles in combat Isis even if it is from a neighboring country being made a priority?

 Events in Iraq will take time to play out so the aircraft may gather dust so to speak while they remain in the USA. After Isis completes its take over of Iraq a new buyer will have to be found for the F-16s. This raises the most interesting question concerning who will the eventual buyer of the F-16s will be?

Saturday 8 November 2014

The Lens of History: Episode Five Dave Steward of the FW de Klerk Founda...



Dave Steward of the FW de Klerk Foundation joins Luke Herbert for a chat about the Foundation role in promoting and preserving South Africa's post Apartheid Constitution.

Just how South Africa's Constitution compares to those of the United States of America and the United Kingdom are discussed around the Coffee table. The challenges that South Africa faces in tackling poverty and improving education are also discussed.

The Lens of History: Episode Four Author Jack Hurst



Author Jack Hurst joins Luke Herbert for a chat about his book Born to Battle Grant and Forrest Shiloh, Vicksburg, and Chattanooga. Find out what Ulysses S.Grant and Nathan Bedford Forrest two seemingly very different historical figures backgrounds shared in common shaped the actions they undertook during the battles they unknowingly opposed each as commanders on the battlefield.

 Tune in to hear a unique non American perceptive on Ulysses S.Grant and Nathan Bedford Forrest respective experiences and how they related to the later military history of two world wars.

Friday 7 November 2014

The Lens of History: Episode Three interview Author Keith Nell



 Luke Herbert chats with author Keith Nell about his book Viscount Down The complete story of the Rhodesian Viscount disasters as told by a SAS operator. Keith Nell sheds light on little known gripping and horrific events .

 Keith Nell's account offers a fascinating insight into events that took place during the Rhodesian Bush War. The listener will no doubt find that many lessons can be learned from the shoot down of the Viscount airliners and the hunt for the terrorists responsible.

The Lens of History: Episode Two Russian Military Modernisation



 Justin Oldham joins Luke Herbert for a chat about the implications of the modernisation of the Russian Armed Forces. NATO countries reduce defence spending and reduce the size of there armed forces Russia is modernising Cold War era platforms. Tune in to find out how the part of the world you are living in could be affected.

 While the fresh paint dries in the studio, Luke Herbert and Justin Oldham also cover how the Russian Armed Forces weathered and are recovering from the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Thursday 6 November 2014

The Lens of History: Episode One the Ukraine the ghost of Munich 1938?



 In this inaugural edition of The Lens of History program Luke Herbert is joined on the couch by author Justin Oldham and political commentator Martin Bain for a discussion about events in the Ukraine.

 As Vladimir Putin leads a resurgent Russia in an expansionist mode is he just defining the Russian sphere of interest or is the 1930's being replayed and another European War set to occur?