link to full report
A good overview of energy security in Asia turned out to be well timed. The report was authored by Andrew Pickford of the Perth USAsia Centre. Incidentally I listen to the Perth USAsia Centre Podcast . I recommend the reader tune into the podcast if they are interested in the prevailing winds carrying us into the Asian Century. For some time the topic of energy security in Asia- Pacific has been fermenting in my mind. I will come back to my thoughts , below. As per usual quotes from the report or other external sources appear in italics.
On page 2 the author sets out a definition of energy security. For space considerations I will mostly leave this section to the reader. I do feel sticking with the idea of uninterrupted availability of appropriate forms of energy at affordable prices is very sensible. The general reader who watches the price of petrol at the pumps may empathises with the author's straight forward approach.
I appreciated reading the historical background to Oil's role as a commodity in 20th century history. As a kid I first read about the value of Java (now a part of present day Indonesia) as the key Oil producing area of the world. My reading was naturally related to WW2 history. Staying with the influence of my early reading : the emergence of Saudi Arabia as a oil exporting nation planted seeds in my mind.
The seeds had me wondering. How did the US go from a exporter of oil to a net importer? Why did Saudi Arabia emerge as a oil power house after and not before WW2? My intent isn't to answer these questions. The point I wish to make is how history books grabbed my attention. I hope the coming generations are captivated in the same manner I was and still am today by the ties between historical and current events. Enough of my of tangent.
My commentary will follow the structure of the report. I believe the author has done well in forecasting likely strategic shocks which could affect energy markets. Outside of foreign policy circles the reader may be wondering just what consists of a Strategic Shock?
In a essay entitled Strategic Shock: Managing the Strategic Gap by Colonel Peter Jarrell Lane United States Army; the following definition appears on Page 9 : If such scenarios are sufficiently plausible and sufficiently worrisome— posing a credible and serious threat to American security—then senior national security decision makers should devote time and resources to address them. —Andrew Krepinovitch1 Military Futuris
Now I turn to themes for the next 20 years. In my opinion the forecast concerning fossil fuels remaining the dominant source of energy is sound. For now I will stick with Liquefield natural gas ( hereafter LNG or natural gas). In today's Geoeconomics , Geopolitical and energy markets natural gas is the big mover. For reasons of space I will conserve LNG for part 2 of A look at Energy Security in New Zealand's extended neighbourhood.
Coal remains the energy source of choice in India. Will coal become obsolete as a energy source? I expect coal will become obsolete in a time period 50 – 70 years beyond the time frame covered by the author. I make this prediction on the basis of 2 factors. The amount of time India will take to evolve as a first world country is the first factor.
Alternative Energy is the wild card in future energy markets. If alternative energy matures as a technology before the time frame I mentioned above the apple cart will be over turned. If the apple cart is overturned not only India but the rest of the globe will experience a energy revolution. A alternative energy revolution is naturally the second factor. I will return to Alternative Energy sources in part 2 of this article.
Technological Innovation isn't confined to efforts to weaning energy sources off fossil fuels. The reader may have come across instances of Smart Grid technology without giving even thinking about it. I count myself in the category of coming across the use of Smart Grid tech at work and not blinking. My electricity provider plans to move towards a automated reader system. For the customer/power consumer the only noticeable change will be never seeing someone employed as a meter reader again.
Such instances of automation offer clear advantages (more accurate power bills) and come with the risk of technical faults. Under the banner of technical faults I would include IT failures and deliberate disruptions caused by hacking or other means.
I now return to Strategic Shocks. In this commentary I am going to combine Strategic Shocks and Structural/Economic Shocks. I hope Foreign Policy nerds will forgive this trespass in the name of maintaining a reader friendly style of writing.
Alternative Energy is the wild card in future energy markets. If alternative energy matures as a technology before the time frame I mentioned above the apple cart will be over turned. If the apple cart is overturned not only India but the rest of the globe will experience a energy revolution. A alternative energy revolution is naturally the second factor. I will return to Alternative Energy sources in part 2 of this article.
Technological Innovation isn't confined to efforts to weaning energy sources off fossil fuels. The reader may have come across instances of Smart Grid technology without giving even thinking about it. I count myself in the category of coming across the use of Smart Grid tech at work and not blinking. My electricity provider plans to move towards a automated reader system. For the customer/power consumer the only noticeable change will be never seeing someone employed as a meter reader again.
Such instances of automation offer clear advantages (more accurate power bills) and come with the risk of technical faults. Under the banner of technical faults I would include IT failures and deliberate disruptions caused by hacking or other means.
I now return to Strategic Shocks. In this commentary I am going to combine Strategic Shocks and Structural/Economic Shocks. I hope Foreign Policy nerds will forgive this trespass in the name of maintaining a reader friendly style of writing.
Outside of Japan and Germany Nuclear Power is very radiant (Pun intended). In Asia China leads the charge of adopting Nuclear Power. Logic would suggest the charge will play a role in the next generation of Nuclear Power reactors going from a laboratory to power plants. Since by the nature of a dictatorial regime public opinion is a non factor , I will leave China for part 2 of this article.
The questions in my mind is the effects of Japan closing down Nuclear Power Plants. Will Japan be more susceptible to the perils of relying on imported Energy Sources? Will Deep Sea Mining make Japan more or less energy independent? These are only some of the questions which come to mind. My commentary now becomes Japan centric. Dealing with Saudi Arabia and Iran would have taken the topic away from New Zealand's extended backyard.
I believe Japan's history is worth revisiting for a moment. Below is my take on modern Japanese history from the stand point of energy security. Japan's history from Commodore Matthew Perry (1794 -1858) arrival to the present day has undergone several distinct periods. In the space available, I would say Perry trigged the law of unintended consequences on a grand scale. As historical events turned out the consequences wouldn't be felt in Perry's lifetime.
Following Perry came the Meiji Restoration period which included rapid industrialisation. The sudden burst of the industrial revolution brought about a thirst for natural resources. As the reader will be well aware Japan is a country completely devoid of natural resources. Historians regard the Russo – Japanese War as the turning point which marked Japan's late entrance in the race for empire.
By the time of The Great Depression, simultaneous occurrences were taking place which are relevant to my argument. A growing population was placing additional pressure on imported resources whether it be supplies of food , oil and coal to list just a few examples. The process of radicalisation a by product of the dire economic conditions was in full flight.
These factors would culminate in Japan' entry into WW2. How the Imperial Japanese Empire rose to great heights and fell between Pearl Harbour and the dropping of the Atomic bombs has been well documented elsewhere. For all the blood shed and rubble (formerly known as Japanese cities) the same fundamental problem remained unsolved. As a nation state Japan was still entirely depended upon external sources/imports of natural resources including those for energy security.
For obvious reasons the coming of the Atomic Age is best remembered for the Mushroom Clouds over Hiroshima and Nagasaki. I would argue the value of Nuclear Power to Post War Japan has gone widely under appreciated. Let me explain my reasoning. People outside of Japan may not understand the extent of just how far that country is devoid of natural resources. The Baby Boomer and later generations of Japanese are to young to remember the ruin WW2 brought to their country.
In the case of Japan Nuclear Power's is more than just a source of clean renewable electricity.
Indeed as a energy source which is not reliant on a continuous external fuel supply , Nuclear Power is very valuable! Consider for instance how Japan or for that matter New Zealand's source of petrol would cease if the supply of fuel oil was interrupted or ceased. I do not mean to suggest Nuclear Power has made giant leaps in Japan achieving energy independence. As the saying goes a small amount of progress is better than none.
I now come to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster (more commonly known as Fukushima ) and how it will effect the future of Nuclear Power. Can public opinion sustain a downturn in the use of or complete removal of Nuclear Power?
I believe the answer to this question must be taken over the long term. Before I offer the reader my answer to the above question I will make a detour. The detour will relate to my personal experiences during and after the Canterbury Earthquakes. My intention is avoid the reader thinking I am trampling over Japanese public opinion in a heartless manner. I ask the reader to bear with me for moment.
A strong range of emotions still come to mind when I ever think about the earth moving under my feet. The trauma from the string events leading up to and after February 22 2011 has long since subsided. My memoires of meeting people who were adversely effected are never far from my mind. What stood out for me is how trauma was a shared experience with countless other people.
I would also argue options or “luxuries” undertaken in the wake of the quakes wouldn't be available in Japan. The Zoning Decisions undertaken by the New Zealand government were one such luxury. Japan's topography and population density would have probably made the same kind of approach to post disaster recovery impractical if not impossible.
So my following conclusion/forecast is done with the utmost respect to the Japanese people. Phrasing out Nuclear Power isn't a luxury available to Japan. For any replacement of Nuclear Power would increase Japan's dependency on imported energy sources. I expect the Japanese government will eventually approve the use of next generation Nuclear Power technology.
Perhaps it could be said Japan's politicians aren't in a position to govern by opinion polls. Current New Zealand Prime Minster John Key has turned governing by opinion polls into a art form. Only time will tell us what ill side effects New Zealand will suffer from our politicians having the option of governing in such a poor fashion.
The questions in my mind is the effects of Japan closing down Nuclear Power Plants. Will Japan be more susceptible to the perils of relying on imported Energy Sources? Will Deep Sea Mining make Japan more or less energy independent? These are only some of the questions which come to mind. My commentary now becomes Japan centric. Dealing with Saudi Arabia and Iran would have taken the topic away from New Zealand's extended backyard.
I believe Japan's history is worth revisiting for a moment. Below is my take on modern Japanese history from the stand point of energy security. Japan's history from Commodore Matthew Perry (1794 -1858) arrival to the present day has undergone several distinct periods. In the space available, I would say Perry trigged the law of unintended consequences on a grand scale. As historical events turned out the consequences wouldn't be felt in Perry's lifetime.
Following Perry came the Meiji Restoration period which included rapid industrialisation. The sudden burst of the industrial revolution brought about a thirst for natural resources. As the reader will be well aware Japan is a country completely devoid of natural resources. Historians regard the Russo – Japanese War as the turning point which marked Japan's late entrance in the race for empire.
By the time of The Great Depression, simultaneous occurrences were taking place which are relevant to my argument. A growing population was placing additional pressure on imported resources whether it be supplies of food , oil and coal to list just a few examples. The process of radicalisation a by product of the dire economic conditions was in full flight.
These factors would culminate in Japan' entry into WW2. How the Imperial Japanese Empire rose to great heights and fell between Pearl Harbour and the dropping of the Atomic bombs has been well documented elsewhere. For all the blood shed and rubble (formerly known as Japanese cities) the same fundamental problem remained unsolved. As a nation state Japan was still entirely depended upon external sources/imports of natural resources including those for energy security.
For obvious reasons the coming of the Atomic Age is best remembered for the Mushroom Clouds over Hiroshima and Nagasaki. I would argue the value of Nuclear Power to Post War Japan has gone widely under appreciated. Let me explain my reasoning. People outside of Japan may not understand the extent of just how far that country is devoid of natural resources. The Baby Boomer and later generations of Japanese are to young to remember the ruin WW2 brought to their country.
In the case of Japan Nuclear Power's is more than just a source of clean renewable electricity.
Indeed as a energy source which is not reliant on a continuous external fuel supply , Nuclear Power is very valuable! Consider for instance how Japan or for that matter New Zealand's source of petrol would cease if the supply of fuel oil was interrupted or ceased. I do not mean to suggest Nuclear Power has made giant leaps in Japan achieving energy independence. As the saying goes a small amount of progress is better than none.
I now come to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster (more commonly known as Fukushima ) and how it will effect the future of Nuclear Power. Can public opinion sustain a downturn in the use of or complete removal of Nuclear Power?
I believe the answer to this question must be taken over the long term. Before I offer the reader my answer to the above question I will make a detour. The detour will relate to my personal experiences during and after the Canterbury Earthquakes. My intention is avoid the reader thinking I am trampling over Japanese public opinion in a heartless manner. I ask the reader to bear with me for moment.
A strong range of emotions still come to mind when I ever think about the earth moving under my feet. The trauma from the string events leading up to and after February 22 2011 has long since subsided. My memoires of meeting people who were adversely effected are never far from my mind. What stood out for me is how trauma was a shared experience with countless other people.
I would also argue options or “luxuries” undertaken in the wake of the quakes wouldn't be available in Japan. The Zoning Decisions undertaken by the New Zealand government were one such luxury. Japan's topography and population density would have probably made the same kind of approach to post disaster recovery impractical if not impossible.
So my following conclusion/forecast is done with the utmost respect to the Japanese people. Phrasing out Nuclear Power isn't a luxury available to Japan. For any replacement of Nuclear Power would increase Japan's dependency on imported energy sources. I expect the Japanese government will eventually approve the use of next generation Nuclear Power technology.
Perhaps it could be said Japan's politicians aren't in a position to govern by opinion polls. Current New Zealand Prime Minster John Key has turned governing by opinion polls into a art form. Only time will tell us what ill side effects New Zealand will suffer from our politicians having the option of governing in such a poor fashion.
