Tuesday 23 August 2016

Jeremy Corbyn welcomes the next war

Jeremy Corbyn has called for Nato to be "closed down", it emerged today as defence chiefs warned his comments about the organisation are "weakening western civilisation”.
Lord Roberson, the former Labour defence secretary and Secretary General of Nato, said: "It beggars belief that the leader of the party most responsible for the collective security pact of Nato should be so reckless as to undermine it by refusing to say he would come to the aid of an ally.
"Even in its darkest, daftest days in the past the Labour Party stuck to its commitment to Nato and to the defence of any ally attacked.
Full article 
Article 

Why am I doubling down on Jeremy Corbyn and have yet to so on Donald Trump? Trying to avoid any sense of political favouritism is why I will start this article by answering such a question. For a while I have been considering what Donald Trump's foreign policy would resemble in practice. I don't yet have a treatment for Charles Lindbergh , err Donald Trump and the America First Movement MK2. My treatment program for Trump will have to wait for another time.


Now I will come back to Corbyn's comments concerning NATO. How can I best sum up my immediate reaction/thoughts to what Corbyn had to say ? In polite terms, unkind would be a apt description. Before writing this article I took upon some time for reflection. I wasn't very successful in the sense of finding constructive way of expanding upon my below thoughts.

The only conclusion I can draw is Corbyn's comments are recklessly irresponsible on a grand scale! Inviting the next European War is the only realistic consequence of Corbyn and his supporters mindset. Like other reasonably minded people I view such recklessness in a broader international context.

Vladimir Putin and his military advisors must be gleeful at a would be UK Prime Minster advocating for the dissolution of NATO. I would say Corbyn actions have reinforced my forecast for a coming European War. I will come back to my forecast in a moment. Beyond the invasion of the Ukraine going unchecked , Corbyn is providing the greatest incentive for the Russians to commit future military aggression against Western Europe and the UK.


As to why Russia is on a war footing the reader can find my reasoning in past articles. I covered the historical/present day motivations behind Putin's aims in a previous article . Is history doomed to repeat in the wake of unlearned historical lessons? What should more moderate and responsible Labor MP's do to repute Corbyn's foolishness?


Saturday 13 August 2016

New Zealand Defence White Wash 2016

But ‘Asia’ isn’t a single actor wielding power. It’s a grouping of many states with conflicting strategic objectives. ‘Power’ isn’t a measure of size but rather a state’s willingness to use it. The White Paper points to the enduring nature of terrorism, resource competition, WMD proliferation and information technology as features shaping New Zealand’s strategic outlook. It’s an odd list, producing policy gems like ‘the adoption of technology has a number of advantages in the military context’, but missing other factors such as the rise of Asian nationalism, climate change and any serious discussion of military technology trends.
ASPI Article  



This blog entry was delayed by a combination circumstances including yours truly moving house. I have been wanting to address the New Zealand Defence White Paper 2016 (hereafter White Paper) since it's release 2 months ago. I feel Peter Jennings offers the best analysis of the White Paper's failings. My intention is to summarise my thoughts on why the White Paper is a white wash.

In previous articles I have covered deficiencies in the NZDF concerning a lack of high end combat capabilities. For this reason I have chosen to cover other matters in this article. The same goes for for more specific topics like roles of Air and Sea Power in New Zealand's security. My intention as per usual is to to offer the reader a fresh perceptive they won't find anywhere else. If the reader would like me to expand upon any of the issues I have raised , please feel free to leave a comment below.


From my standpoint: New Zealand lacking a coherent defence strategy is what shines through the contents of the White Paper. For a moment I will follow this line of thinking. What reasons/symptoms of the aforementioned lack of strategy? Space doesn't permit me to provide a detailed and complete answer. Some glaring symptoms can be examined in brief.

The refusal to acknowledge China's role in heightened tensions around territorial disputes in Asia is glaring. To what extent denial is behind the blinkers worn by the New Zealand Government as opposed to a lack of strategic thinking is worthy of debate. In writing this article I hope to spur on such a debate amongst the public and academic circles.

Staying with nation states, did anybody else notice how the contents of the White Paper defied New Zealand's geography? Let me explain my point: Any threat conventional military threat (read China) to New Zealand will come from Asia. Put another way interstate warfare is unlikely to originate from the Antarctic in the time frame covered by the White Paper.


I believe defending New Zealand in the event of a wartime emergency is a blind spot in current defence thinking. It is only fitting that I finish up with a symptom of such a dangerous blind spot. New Zealand's defence ties with countries like India , Japan and Indonesia either barley rate a mention or they don't at all. In fact Indonesia is omitted all together.

Who in their right mind would think neglecting defence ties with our security partners in Asia is a good idea? Has New Zealand placed a over reliance on the International Rules Order at the expense of diplomatic and military ties with the Asia – Pacific region? Certainly I would make the case , New Zealand has placed all it's cards in the falling house known as the International Rules Based Order.

The contents of the White Paper is a reflection how little public and political interest there is in New Zealand's defence and foreign policies. There can be no no doubt the lack of debate around the White Paper stems from disinterest. I can only foresee the level of interest increasing in the event of New Zealand facing a wartime emergency at which times all of our chickens will be coming home to roost.