A glance at the 2015 United Kingdom General Election result

The Conservatives made gains in England and Wales and are forecast by the BBC to secure 331 seats in the Commons, giving them a slender majority.
Sources say Ed Miliband is expected to stand down after Labour was all but wiped out by the SNP in Scotland.
Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg has already said he will quit, with his party set to be reduced from 57 to eight MPs.

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This is my first glance at the United Kingdom General Election Result. The final results have yet to be declared at the time of writing. My first impression is that the projected result shares a Kiwi flavour. Let me touch upon the 2014 New Zealand General Election to explain how David Cameron will be enjoying Marmite on Toast.

At the last New Zealand General Election a National lead government was elected for a third term with an increase in the party vote. (Note to the international reader under New Zealand's MMP electoral system the Party and not the Electoral Vote decides elections.) In short the centre left went out of its way to commit political suicide. Labour convinced themselves that they way to draw the “missing million” voters (voters who don't bother to vote) was drift to the left on the political spectrum.

Voters also saw through Kim Dotcom attempted to try and change the government in order to avoid extradition to the USA. Nor did the majority of voters care about the whole Dirty politics saga. By drifting away from the centre , Labour competed with the Greens and Internet/Mana Party for for the hard left vote.


In New Zealand the centre or swing voters which amount to about 40% of the electorate decide elections. On election night Labour cannibalised the hard left vote. Centralist voters flocked to National. Many of these people would have voted for Labour in the past.

Curiously the SNP success in Scotland appears to have cannibalised the left wing vote. The seats the SNP won made a contribution to Labour's defeat. If Labour and the political left in the UK aimed to emulate their New Zealand counterparts they have been successful.

IMO the SNP is proof that even without Proportional Representation it is possible to see a stark raving mad political party elected to Parliament. The SNP policy of scraping Trident (the UK nuclear deterrent) in the face of a resurgent Russia is bonkers. Never mind the viability of Scotland being a stand alone independent state.

I believe that the Kiwi reader won't be surprised by how the Lib Dem were hammered by voters. Political Commentators in New Zealand have often commented on how minor parties who go into coalition with National or Labour tend to suffer at the hands of voters at the next election. In general these minor parties are perceived to have lived in the shadow of National or Labour. (Note to the reader New Zealand hasn't had a majority government since 1993 due to the adoption of MMP.)

A brief word on the UKIP. I believe the fact that the UKIP gained more votes than the SNP and far less seats is worthy of a close examination. Could there be a better demonstration of just how bad a First Past the Post electoral system really is? Could there be a better advertisement for Preferential Voting? If the reader would like me to cover this matter in greater depth , please leave a comment below.

David Cameron and John Key are friends who share the same political outlook. For instance as Prime Minster both men have supported Gay Marriage. I also think Key and Cameron both ran solid and disciplined election campaigns in their respective countries because they share the same qualities as political leaders.

Both Key and Cameron have benefited from the radicalisation of the political left that I believe is occurring world wide. Alas the drift of the political left is a topic for another day.

Voters perceived Key as being a centre right pragmatist and a safe pair of hands. Voters in the UK likely perceived Cameron in the same manner. As a general rule Government's lose elections. Opposition parties don't win elections.

In both New Zealand and the United Kingdom the polls didn't reflect the final result on election night. I put this down to a greater emphasis on Social Media and unscientific online polls and surveys. The future of scientific political polling is yet to be extensively discussed.

Traditional (and scientific) political polling is done via telephone calls to would be voters. The rise of Skype has seen a decline in the number people who have old fashion landlines phones. We are yet to see how the pollsters will adjust to this trend.

All in all: Cameron can enjoy some Marmite on toast.