The Side effects of the Iranian nuclear deal

Sanctions imposed by the UN, US and EU in an attempt to force Iran to halt uranium enrichment have crippled its economy, costing the country more than $160bn (£102bn) in oil revenue since 2012 alone. Iran stands to receive more than $100bn in assets frozen overseas, and will be able to resume selling oil on international markets and using the global financial system for trade.

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The long awaited deal continues my forecast concerning Iran gaining Nuclear Weapons. So instead of covering old ground I will look at some of the other unintended side effects of the cancer (otherwise known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) ). The side effects will stem from the lifting of economic sanctions. The sanctions were apart of the international community effort to prevent Iran from gaining Nuclear Weapons. Below is my predictions for what the side effects will be for the Middle East region.

My prediction is that the main side effect will be the Iranian regime increasing funding for Hezbollah and Houthis. Both Hezbollah and Houthis are proxies for Iran's interests and regional territorial ambitions. The funding will be used to increase the flow arms to Hezbollah and Houthis. IMO better equipping existing units or expanding the number of them taking part in the Yemen insurgency is why Iran was keen to have the sanctions lifted.

Saudi Arabia and Yemen have been sacrificed by the international community . By 2020 Iran will have consolidated it's hold on Yemen. After Yemen Iran will gobble up Saudi Arabia. I estimate that it will take Houthis around five years to seize control of Saudi Arabia.

Currently Iran and Isis are engaged in a race for Saudi Arabia . The additional support Houthi receives from Iran will ensure they win the race for Saudi Arabia. Isis also has Jordan as a roadblock in the way of winning the territorial race. To what degree Isis and Houthsi contest Saudi Arabia remains to be seen.

They key to taking long term control of Saudi Arabia is the country's urban centres and major road networks . Upon moving into the country the first goal of Isis and or Houthi will be to destroy or capture the infrastructure that supplies fresh drinking water to the population centres. The supply of drinking water is the life blood to a desert country like Saudi Arabia. Cut off the the supply of blood and the country dies.

As the threat to Saudi Arabia becomes more apparent it will cause a spike in global oil prices. For Kiwi's that could mean petrol hovering around $2.18 per Litre. We are going to pay the price for western leaders appeasing Iran in our wallets and with the coming world war.

My take on the Collins Class Submarine Replacement Project

There’s a degree of cynicism surrounding the government’s Competitive Evaluation Process(CEP) for the future submarine project. That’s to be expected; the process was forced upon the government in the turmoil of an internal leadership contest after all. Be that as it may, it would be a mistake to dismiss the CEP as a smokescreen for a preconceived outcome. Even if the government wished otherwise, the process took on a life of its own from the moment it began and since then the politics of the issue have shifted against a foreign build.

Full article



The question that nobody has the courage to ask is as follows. Why isn't Australia pursuing a indigenous submarine design? This question helps to frame my response to Mark Thompson 's piece. In this article I will make a broad argument for Australia replacing the Collins Class Submarines with a home grown design.

The RAN's submarines operational requirements are unique. A conventional submarine that has to travel long distances undetected to operational areas. Reducing the amount of time it takes the RAN's submarines to reach their operational areas is paramount. By reaching their operational areas quicker they will be able to spend more time on station. The RAN would also be able to react quicker to any unexpected events in Asia. I will come back to this later on.

I will touch upon a few matters of importance that I would like to the reader to consider. In the 1960's JFK committed the USA to putting a man on the moon by the end of the decade. JFK never lived to see the fulfilment of his vision in Neil Armstrong taking his first his steps on the moon.

In my view it was JFK underlying patriotism that was behind his rallying call, for his country to race the Soviets to the Moon. From his patriotism came his supreme belief that his country would win the race to the moon. The moon landings saw the USA win the Cold War Space Race.

For a moment I would like to compare Tony Abbott to John F Kennedy. Sure it is easy for Abbott to have his Photo taken in the cockpit of a RAAF F-35. Such a gimmick is usefully politically because it makes Abbott look like a strong Conservative Prime Minster.

Abbott has failed one of the examinations that are determining his qualities as the Prime Minster of Australia. IMO Abbott is a unpatriotic sell out when stood next to JFK. Nobody and I mean nobody , who believes in his or her country would have been so keen to out source the Collins Class Submarine replacement project.

Coming back to the matter at hand. So what can Australia gain from a indigenous submarine design? Well just like how the Apollo Program generated technological spin off's ,so could the future of Australian ship and submarine building. The only way Australia could miss out on technological spin off's entirely is if the Anzac Class Frigates and Collins Class Submarine replacements are built entirely off shore.

Regardless of the design of submarine providing some of construction work is done locally the opportunity will exist to modernise the Australian shipbuilding industry. Once 3D Printing has been demonstrated as a viable proportion doors will be opened for its wider adoption across the private sector.

One advantage of an indigenous design would be that the design parameters could be set above and beyond the capabilities of any conventional submarine currently in service with navies around the world. Meeting the design parameters could require the same levels of research and development that NASA employed in the years leading up to Apollo 11. This is how Australia pursuing a indigenous submarine design could be akin to the Apollo program.

What technological breakthrough's would be confined to indigenous submarine design? And what technological spins off would cross over into civilian life? Improving battery technology is beneficial to Submarine design. Crossing to civilian life wouldn't it be nice if your smart phone battery life was around 2 weeks? (Note to the reader the example of battery tech is an educated guess on my part.)

Now I know the reader is screaming that classified military secrets rightfully shouldn't be in the public domain. To answer this point I will use the example of GPS. The US military enjoys a better level of access to GPS then everyone else. In some cases technological systems can serve both military and civilian purposes nicely.

Now I shall return to the depths of submarine design. Specifically propulsion and halving the amount of travel time to operational areas. Increasing underwater speed without sacrificing stealth would be one of the many engineering challenges in creating a next generation submarine design. Improving on existing technologies like Air Independent Propulsion would take side alongside the development of completely new ones.

Australia has a unique opportunity to design and build the next generation of conventional submarines. By doing so Australia could influence the course of conventional Submarine design. A historical parallel is how HMS Dreadnought (1906) revolutionised warship design. All existing pre-Dreadnought designs of larger warships were made obsolete over night.

I dare say that history will look very unfriendly upon Australia if the opportunities I have covered in this article go to waste.

A look at 3D Printing and the Australian defence industry

Mass customization is the ultimate small production run: a product made for just one customer. A good example is Normal, which makes custom ear buds using 3-D printing, each pair optimized for an individual customer. The University of Florida creates plastic brains for student surgeons to practice on. Current technology can vary the density of the material, creating a very genuine feel for the material under the scalpel. In the future, the practice brain will be derived from scans of the actual patient’s brain, with an life-like tumor of just the right size in just the right location.

Non-standard parts is a potential use. For small and mid-sized production runs, standard parts are often specified. For example, a piece of aluminum trim is usually a common size, such as one inch, which is cheaper than an unusual size. With 3-D printing, the design can be optimized without regard to standard sizes.

Forbes Article

High-value manufacturing involves advanced techniques like 3-D printing and composite materials, systems integration and identifying opportunities to participate in international supply chains. We need to update our thinking to realise that producing large objects through ‘metal bashing’, such as ship hulls, is increasingly the low value-add end of manufacturing. Tomorrow’s high value might not involve producing solid objects at all—at least in any way we’d recognise today.

ASPI Blog

I thought that in light of my arguments for modernising the Australian shipbuilding industry , 3D printing is worth a closer look. If your not familiar with 3D Printing have a read of the articles linked to above.

At present 3D printing in Australia is still small scale . Retooling the Australian defence industry as a whole with 3D printing could happen in a couple of different ways. The first is that smaller firms (e.g. DMTC) would adopt the new emerging technology. The advantage of this would be that 3D printing would be demonstrated on a small yet successful scale. Larger firms including the ASC could retool their production lines with 3D Printing in the knowledge they aren't taking a gamble on a unproven technology.

The other way would see the ASC before or after privatisation adopting 3D Printing. The rest of the Australian defence industry would naturally follow suit over time. In either approach small business will likely have difficultly meeting the costs of transitioning to 3D Printing from older machinery.

IMO the conversion to 3D printing would be akin to PC's replacing typewriters in officers and homes around the world. Before spreadsheets found their way onto your PC, nobody was quiet sure what roles the newfangled devices would have outside of being a Geek's paradise. At the time of writing 3D printing is well on its way to establishing itself as one of the emerging technologies of this decade. (Note to the reader I have previously sighted how the Chinese are using 3D Printing in the construction of high rise buildings.)

IMO the real danger is that the Australia defence industry shies away from embracing 3D printing. The cost of retooling and the potential fear of a new technological frontier are formidable obstacles. If these formidable obstacles are not overcome the Australian Defence industry's production and R&D bases will face obsolescence.

Should Australia build its own naval warships?

 Recommendations

 1. An expansion of Australian military power will help support the forces of the US and its other allies at a crucial time, as American pre-eminence comes under serious challenge. However, locking into a naval shipbuilding program in perpetuity is betting heavily on surface vessels, which are increasingly vulnerable to new technologies.

 2. Given the very high costs and strategic importance of the RAN’s surface fleet, any plan to establish a continuous naval shipbuilding program should be accompanied by a comprehensive analysis of the costs, benefits and risks of the program compared to alternative procurement options.

 3. The sale of ASC is inextricably linked to a number of elements of the broader naval shipbuilding industry landscape, including the future submarines and frigates and the ongoing maintenance of the Collins-class submarines. Any credible enterprise-level naval shipbuilding plan will need to include a sequenced road map showing how the various elements will be brought into harmony.

 4. If a monopoly rolling production program is established, the government needs to explain how it will monitor performance and ensure value for money through incentives and sanctions. One option would be to establish a Naval Shipbuilding Office to oversee the performance of Defence and the monopoly supplier.

 5. Rather than commit to a rolling-build program today, the government could initiate an Anzac replacement program with a production run on a schedule consistent with transitioning to a continuous-build program later, with any further work contingent on achieving value-for-money levels of productivity.

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The structure of this article is my reply to the five recommendations listed above. I will also address the need to modernise the Australian shipbuilding industry. Note to the reader: The report only covers the replacement for the Anzac Class Frigates and not the Collins Class submarine successor.

1. In a future war Australian shipyards will be called upon to meet the wartime demand for frigates and other surface vessels. In short this require the expansion of the RAN's surface fleet to meet wartime demands and replacing ships lost in combat. Having Australian shipyards and other industrial plants tooled for rolling production is a prerequisite for wartime mass production.

If the reader would like me to further explore the topic of wartime mass production , then feel free to drop me a line or leave a comment below.

2. Why is any cost , benefit and risk analysis being done on the current work force and as the shipyards and other industrial plants are tooled? Wouldn't the analysis be worthless if the shipyards and other manufacturing plants are retooled for 3D printing?

3. The sale of the ASC is one of the pivotal policy decisions concerning the Australian Defence industry that has been made in recent years. I would go as far to say as the buyer could make or break the future of Australian shipbuilding.

The reader may want to consider how the fate of the New Zealand rail network during the years it was owned by Tranz Rail. Tranz Rail guttered New Zealand's rail network with a lack of maintenance and investment in equipment. Tranz Rail only real goal was asset stripping. I believe what happened to the railways in New Zealand under Tranz Rail's watch is a cautionary tale. Government's must take care when they privatise strategic assets like shipyards and railways.

What kind of criteria should the Australian government set for the sale of the ASC? What measuring sticks should be used when measuring the success a firm has previously had in delivering vessels on time and on budget?

4. I am not opposed to the creation of the Naval Ship Building Office. I do think that the future owners of the ASC should receive payment bonuses for vessels that are delivered on or under time. By the same token the firm should lose money on a vessel that has been delayed longer then a specified amount of time.

5. A very sensible idea. How does the RAN's surface fleet expand if the initial order of vessels suffers from gross cost over runs? A contingency plan that ensures the additional vessels are available from off shore sources is required.

I do think that the production of vessels should take place in two phrases. Phrase one would entail the trialling of competing designs. After the winning design has been chosen prototype vessels can be constructed for further testing. Ironing out any wrinkles with new production methods and a retrained work force could also take place without adversely effecting the phrase two production schedule.

Phrase two as I have indicated would be the production phrase. The focus would be on delivering vessels in a speedy manner to the RAN and maybe even export markets.

Modernisation of the Australian Shipbuilding Industry

I believe that the advent of 3D printing as rendered current manufacturing tooling obsolete. The reader may want to consider how the Chinese are using 3D printing in the construction of high rise buildings If 3D printing can be used to fabricate high rise buildings , why cant it be used in shipbuilding? 

So the matter becomes how and who pays for the modernisation of the shipbuilding industry. Who will pay for the Research and development into 3D printing? Who will pay for retooling the shipyards? How will the smaller firms who support the shipbuilding make the transition to the new era of 3D printing? I would advocate that these questions be resolved before the ASC is privatised.

Australia could potentially have a world leading and cutting edge shipbuilding industry. For the enormous amount of potential to be unlocked the Australian government will need to make careful and considered policy decisions. Australian firms will have to embrace pushing technological boundaries into uncharted frontiers.

What's next for Greece?

• The Greek parliament must immediately adopt laws to reform key parts of its economy - by Wednesday. The reforms include: streamlining the pension system and boosting tax revenue - especially from VAT
• A commitment to liberalise the labour market, privatise the electricity network and extend shop opening hours
• The eurozone agrees in principle to start negotiations on a loan package for Greece worth €82bn-86bn (£59bn-£62bn; $91bn-$96bn)
• The loan will come mainly from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) - the eurozone bailout fund. But the International Monetary Fund will also be asked to make a contribution from March 2016

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Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is facing a tough battle to win support from coalition partners for the third bailout offered by eurozone leaders.
Four pieces of legislation must be passed by the end of Wednesday including pension and VAT reforms.
But Defence Minister Panos Kammenos, a junior coalition partner, has already said he will not support the measures.

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I just want to give the reader my impression of Greece's latest bail out. While China's stock market crash is the real game in town events in Greece will help to determine the geopolitical map of Europe. Below is the three ways I think the situation in Greece could play out.

 Before I get to why the agreement was reached the most important question must be asked. How will the Greek People react to the deal? Bear in mind that at the recent referendum the majority of Greek Voters were opposed to new austerity measures and economic reform.

 Nor did voters give the Greek government the nod to surrender the countries sovereignty to the EU and the IMF. The Greek government is handing over budgetary control to the IMF and the main players in the EU. If the Greeks honour this agreement the government they elect will serve as little more then over paid administrators.

 What occurs if the Greek government and people reject the current deal? In my view it really depends on the length of time the Greek government keeps up the pretence of maintaining there end of the bargain. They might cut and run , so to speak.

 By doing so the Greeks would use the latest bail out funds to recapitalise their banking system. Afterwards they would default on their debt and launch a new currency. They would exchange the bailout funds for their new currency. The exchange would ensure the Greek banking system has sufficient funds after they leave the EU train wreck.

 Secondly the Greek Parliament may vote to reject the new deal on the table. In this case the Greece would default and leave the EU like in the first scenario. The transition to a new currency would be made more difficult by the lack of funds in the Greek banking system.

 Before I go on any further one point is worth is making about the radicalisation of Greek politics. The centre ground in the Greek political scene has vanished under the quicksand of the country reliving the 1930's Great Depression. The Far left political party Syriza leads the government and the Far Right party Golden Dawn holds seats in the Greek Parliament.

 So if the Greek government goes ahead and tries to implement the bailout package what recourse is open to Greek voters? The only recourse open to them is either to overthrow the government or elect a Russian backed dictator. Greece would leave the EU and become a Russian client State.

 My forecast is either the first or second scenario will take place. Regardless of what happens Greece will drift under the Russian sphere of influence. The question is just to what degree Greece drifts eastwards? Don't be surprised if Greece signs a trade deal with Russia after they exits the EU.

 Lastly why are France and Germany so keen to hand out money to Greece when they are destine to leave the EU no matter what happens? Sheer desperation is the only reason that springs to mind. Greece looks set to trigger a wave of defaults in the EU. After Greek foregoes its debts and exists the EU so will Italy , Spain and Portugal. The EU could well burst apart at the seams.

Tying New Zealand aid to Tonga with combating Family Violence

Her story is not uncommon in the Kingdom of Tonga, where three out of four women report suffering domestic violence. Here in the so-called "friendly islands", women report being punched, kicked, dragged, beaten or choked. The perpetrator in many cases is another woman.

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 Tonga is one of New Zealand's core bilateral development cooperation partners.  The bilateral development assistance programme for 2012/2013 is $27 million. 

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Why is the New Zealand tax payer forking out money to a country that won't face up to a wide spread family violence problem? A fundamental rethink of how New Zealand delivers developmental/economic aid to Tonga is long overdue. Aside from the moral issues involved the Tongan government has admitted they don't have the capacity to implement their own developmental programs.

I think that not one single dollar of Tax Payer money should be spend on developmental/economic aid to Tonga , until a couple of things have taken place. Tonga as a nation must be prepared to face up to its family violence problem. Secondly Tonga could be used to trial new developmental frameworks. What those frameworks may look like falls mostly falls beyond the scope of this article. If the reader would like to know more about my ideas in the area of foreign aid , leave a comment below.

My approach essentially would be the carrot and the stick. The carrot is looking at affecting a generational change that reduces family violence levels. And a sound developmental strategy that reduces Tonga's reliance on overseas aid. The stick is fairy simple they go with New Zealand developmental/economic aid until our conditions are met.

Why should the Tongan people and government meet any of the new conditions when the Chinese will dole out cash with no strings attached? If New Zealand is having trouble facing up to the societal issue of family violence , how and why should Tonga? What kinds of conditions should be put in place to ensure New Zealand Aid to Tonga is more effective? All these questions have merit and I would welcome feedback from the reader on them.

China's stock market crash is the real game in town

China's market regulator has introduced a string of new rules in the past week to try to relieve pressure on Chinese shares. The Shanghai Composite has fallen by more than 30% since mid-June.

On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite fell as much as 8.2%, leading some analysts to describe the session as 'Black Wednesday'.

Article  

That hasn't stopped state-run media, who helped spark the bull market by advocating equity investment toward the end of last year, from assigning blame. Financial News, backed by Chinese authorities including the central bank, ran an opinion piece on Friday that asked if Morgan Stanley had a "hidden agenda" connected with the stock market.  Article

Really I just want to say that Kiwis should be very concerned by economics developments in China. The emerging Chinese middle class will feel the squeeze from there own share market bubble bursting. So events in China are posed to gave a much larger economic impact on New Zealand then events in Greece. Greece's melt down can only drag down German and French banks down with the EU Titanic.

At most the EU entering a slow terminal illness will sends ripples across the oceans to New Zealand's economic outlook. If the Chinese middle class stop buying Kiwi dairy products a economic Tsunami could be heading our way. Falling commodity prices and lower demand could see the New Zealand government's books go from running modest surpluses back to hefty deficits.

If New Zealand government doesn't run a surplus and paying back debt , what might be install for the future? In the long term New Zealand would risk becoming the Greece of the South Pacific. China's economic slow down is going to be around for the next five years. These years will be make or break for New Zealand in economic terms.

I would urge the reader to take note of how the Chinese government is placing the blame for the stock market on foreign investors. Blaming foreigners is the oldest trick in the book. By blaming foreigners the Chinese regime doesn't have to admit that it failed to educate people on the workings of the stock market.

Ironically I believe that a historical parallel exists between Japan in the 1930's and China's emergence as a military and economic power. China like pre war Japan has territorial ambitions. Support for these territorial claims relies on the hatred of foreign influences. Such hatred will also fueled by the Chinese population misplacing the blame for their economic hiccups.