Monday 23 February 2015

Jordan fight against Isis

Mr. Secretary, let me just reiterate what His Majesty the King, says repeatedly: This is our war. This is a war that has to have a Muslim/Arab stand, but without the support of our international friends, our partners in the coalition, we cannot do it and we cannot eradicate this evil. It is truly a third world war by other means.
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The King of Jordan and is government have been preparing their country for war. The war will be for the very survival of the the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. The reader may want to factor in how Isis poses a direct threat to Jordan in the face of there take over of Iraq and large chunks of Syria.

I find it hard not to see the ghost of Winston Churchill present in Abdullah II King of Jordan. Unlike Britain, Jordan does not have the English Channel as a barrier for against any would be invader. Just like Churchill, King Abdullah is looking to inspire his people to fight against a relentless foe.

What was Jordan's foreign minister Nasser Judeh signalling with his comment concerning the fight against Isis being a world war? The first phrase of the war has started. Isis are creeping closer to Jordan. Replacing casualties lost in combat and logistics are holding up Isis advance.

Seen from the view point of a western observer, I would argue that Jordan has already been thrown to the wolves. President Barack Obama has decided that rhetoric directed at Isis will be his main weapon in defeating this monstrous tyranny. The people of Iraq are the victims of Obama's take very little action and talk a lot of rubbish strategy for combating Isis.

The key event to watch in Jordan is general mobilisation. I will be observing the difficulties Jordan has training and equipping an expanded wartime military with great interest. To what extent Jordan can equip a rapidly expanding military with a modest industrial base may well be the deciding factor in the Battle for Jordan.

Curiously I am remind of the fate of Rhodesia in the 1970's. In its own way Jordan is facing international isolation just like Rhodesia did in the fifteen years after UDI. Communist backed terrorists operating from Zambia and Mozambique swarmed over the border in Rhodesia. Jordan is facing the same kind of onslaught from Isis from neighbouring Iraq and Syria.

How long will Jordan be able to economically sustain a wartime economy? In time Jordan could face economic ruin from the costs of the war. I do think that unlike Rhodesia they have the population buffer that will prevent economic difficulties, that can arise when the military age population leaves their civilian jobs for front line duty.

Will Jordan share the fate of Rhodesia with Isis in the place of the Chinese Communist backed Robert Mugabe? Watch this space.























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