The future of the Suez Canal

Mr Mameesh said the new canal would reduce navigation time for ships to 11 hours from about 22 hours, making it the fastest such waterway in the world. The new and old canals are connected by four small channels.

Eighty five percent of dredging works have been completed, with 219.3 million cubic metres of sand excavated from a total of 258 million cubic metres, Mr Mameesh said, adding that the new waterway would be fully secured.

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I don't foresee the Egyptian government making a return on their investment. This comes to mind , when I factor in the deteriorating security situation in Egypt and the wider Middle East region. Is the Egyptian government using the expansion of the Suez Canal (hereafter the Canal) to boaster the confidence of global shipping and insurance firms?

If or when global commerce decides the risk of goods transiting through the Suez Canal is to great a pivotal moment will have been reached. The pivotal moment may take a another route with Islamic extremists seizing outright control of the Canal.

Before I go on any further I believe it is worth making a few points. One of the goals of Isis is to ensure they have direct access to Mediterranean via ports along the coast of Libya. From their bases Isis and its cohorts will be able to conduct acts of piracy if not outright terrorism against UK and European interests.

The capture of the Suez Canal would be a great propaganda victory for Isis. As a propaganda triumph and a symbol of gross political/military errors I believe handing the Suez Canal over to the enemy would be akin to the Fall of Singapore in WW2. The National prestige the Canal enjoys in Egypt is equal to the value the Canal as a artery of the world's shipping lanes.

In economic terms the closure of the Canal would see increased costs passed onto consumers. The additional time goods spend in transit will increase the costs of transportation will see shipping costs rise. The increased mileage will expose sea based commerce to emerging threats.

The Egyptian Armed forces role may switch from construction duties to providing security for the Canal. Providing security for the canal is going to be problematic. At the time of writing security for the Canal is still in the hands of local border patrol/police forces. Civilian law enforcement agencies will be a tempting target for Isis and other terrorist groups.

Why does the Egyptian government appear reluctant for either a greater level of cooperation or assistance with defending the Canal? The answer is straight forward as Nationalistic pride is coming before the fall. Egypt would loath to ask the ex colonial powers , France and the United Kingdom for direct military assistance or intervention.

In the event Egypt did defy the prevailing religious/nationalistic political ideology , what might or might not occur? The US ; UK and the rest of the international community is suffering from Vietnam err, I mean Iraq syndrome. Even if the UK was to overcome their syndrome cutbacks in defence spending would prevent any kind of intervention or joint military cooperation from taking place.

I believe the Egyptian government would request naval and maritime air patrol support in the Mediterranean and the Red Sea. The Egyptian Army would be responsible for the security of the waterway from a land perspective.

The first serious bite in the Cutbacks to the UK Armed Forces may be seen as events in Egypt continue to slide. The RN ability to project sea power (abet a soft version of it in this case) has been servilely handicapped by the penny pinching budgets of the last 5 years. The Maritime patrol aircraft the RAF no longer has in service is also a glaring omission.

The history and future of the Suez Canal demonstrates how history and geography are and will continue to determine the course of human affairs. Political brothers in arms John Key and David Cameron are delusional because they do not silly the grease which keeps the wheels of international events turning.