The Side effects of the Iranian nuclear deal

Sanctions imposed by the UN, US and EU in an attempt to force Iran to halt uranium enrichment have crippled its economy, costing the country more than $160bn (£102bn) in oil revenue since 2012 alone. Iran stands to receive more than $100bn in assets frozen overseas, and will be able to resume selling oil on international markets and using the global financial system for trade.

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The long awaited deal continues my forecast concerning Iran gaining Nuclear Weapons. So instead of covering old ground I will look at some of the other unintended side effects of the cancer (otherwise known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) ). The side effects will stem from the lifting of economic sanctions. The sanctions were apart of the international community effort to prevent Iran from gaining Nuclear Weapons. Below is my predictions for what the side effects will be for the Middle East region.

My prediction is that the main side effect will be the Iranian regime increasing funding for Hezbollah and Houthis. Both Hezbollah and Houthis are proxies for Iran's interests and regional territorial ambitions. The funding will be used to increase the flow arms to Hezbollah and Houthis. IMO better equipping existing units or expanding the number of them taking part in the Yemen insurgency is why Iran was keen to have the sanctions lifted.

Saudi Arabia and Yemen have been sacrificed by the international community . By 2020 Iran will have consolidated it's hold on Yemen. After Yemen Iran will gobble up Saudi Arabia. I estimate that it will take Houthis around five years to seize control of Saudi Arabia.

Currently Iran and Isis are engaged in a race for Saudi Arabia . The additional support Houthi receives from Iran will ensure they win the race for Saudi Arabia. Isis also has Jordan as a roadblock in the way of winning the territorial race. To what degree Isis and Houthsi contest Saudi Arabia remains to be seen.

They key to taking long term control of Saudi Arabia is the country's urban centres and major road networks . Upon moving into the country the first goal of Isis and or Houthi will be to destroy or capture the infrastructure that supplies fresh drinking water to the population centres. The supply of drinking water is the life blood to a desert country like Saudi Arabia. Cut off the the supply of blood and the country dies.

As the threat to Saudi Arabia becomes more apparent it will cause a spike in global oil prices. For Kiwi's that could mean petrol hovering around $2.18 per Litre. We are going to pay the price for western leaders appeasing Iran in our wallets and with the coming world war.

John Key in Saudi Arabia

It is also hoped he'll have face time with extravagant Prince Alwaleed bin Talal Alsaud - the world's second richest royal, worth a staggering US$21 billion. He owns a string of palaces and an Airbus A380 with its own concert hall.

Key is in the desert city Riyadh to get a free trade deal over the line. It stalled in 2009 over New Zealand's ban on exporting live sheep for slaughter.

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Prime Minister John Key is under fire from his opponents for disclosing Kiwi troops were in Dubai on their way to Iraq after the Defence Force had previously kept a lid on their movements for security reasons.Key has also been slated for telling Dubai media about the troop movements when the Government appeared to have a deliberate policy of keeping its domestic audience in New Zealand in the dark.

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John Key's visit to Saudi Arabia has shown why he is out of his depth in the foreign affairs arena. Key view of foreign affairs is build around securing Free Trade Agreements for New Zealand. This in itself is not a unsound foreign policy objective. Where Key falls down is he disconnect from reality concerning the deteriorating situation in the Middle East.

Once Iranian backed Houthi militia have taken control of Yemen their next target will be Saudi Arabia. The Houthi and any other Iranian backed factions are in a race against Isis to seize the Saudi oil fields. Iranian backed forces will win the race in about 5 years time.

They will win the race because the Iranians are supplying them with arms and training. Republican Guard units virtually serving in the open will be acting as advisors/trainers to Houthi. Isis doesn't enjoy any such backing from rogue regimes like North Korea.

Long term the idea that New Zealand could enjoy increased exporters to Saudi Arabia via a Free Trade Agreement is preposterous. If it would take 5 years to secure the agreement ; by than Iran will be in proxy control of Saudi Arabia.

By 2020 Iran will control large chunks of Iraq , Syria and Yemen and Saudi Arabia as a whole. Saudi Arabia will have been thrown to the Wolves by the international community. The list of Middle East countries being thrown to the wolves consists of Iraq , Yemen, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

Why did Key violate operational security by revealing the fact Kiwi troops were in Dubai while transiting to Iraq? Here is what I believe can be taken as the short answer. In the policy departments of foreign policy and defence he his clueless. Key's pointless stop off in Saudi Arabia is a clear sign of this gross failing. National failure to reverse the damage the Labour government did to the NZDF can be taken in the same vain.